Recognising the mistake when you make it again

Good Day All

It has been a few weeks since my last blog post.I like everyone else have to earn a living and I have been busy with some business transactions and my latest deal has been a complete and utter disaster.

As an entrepreneur I felt I should share with everyone one of the most valuable lessons I have learnt as a an entrepreneur.

The Lesson can be summed up in just a few words:

Recognising the mistake when I make it again.

What does this actually mean to me as a businessman making my way through the world of deals and betrayals. Every deal has a margin of risk associated with it. The greater the risk the greater the reward is the standard equation for an entrepreneur. Now a successful businessman finds a balance between risk versus reward and its through this balance that one is able to measure your success or failure. The more you risk the more you stand to loose. but if you find the right balance for you and your risk appetite and rewards balance each other then you are able to make a comfortable living.

However every entrepreneur at some point or the other risks far outweigh the rewards and you loose and this is the equation for failure. However as a businessman especially one who manage to stay afloat and also do not loose there resolve in the world of entrepreneurship come to a realisation that failure is nothing more than an opportunity to succeed.

Why is this you would ask yourself, that sounds insane and why would anyone do that. Well when you are finally able to recognise your mistakes when you make them again it means that you have learnt from your past mistakes but have not lost your sense of adventure or affinity for risk and thus you are able to brush off your losses and pickup and move forward. This is the trick to long term sustainable success in an  environment fraught with  the prospect of failure around every corner.

I have just made a another mistake by being caught up in what I believed was a good deal and I sunk my heart and soul into the deal and worked hard and overcame every challenge only to be left standing looking in at the situation and realising that the parties for whom I pledged my time and expertise where nothing more than a bunch of liars who painted a beautiful portrait but when the portrait is checked for its provenance its found to be fake.

I have a belief in the good that exists inside everyone, however from time to time I am reminded that the inherent good of man is isolated and not actually a wide spread factor but a true phenomenon.

None the less I have recognised the mistake because I have made it again and will most likely make it again in the future. However this will not deter me from success but drive me towards it because in the beginning I left everything to chance and in my later years I have always prepared a back up plan to assist me in bouncing back from a loss.

The saying that fits this best is:

Chance favours the prepared mind!!

So don’t be afraid move on and move forward for as long as you move forward and can recognise your mistakes and be brave enough to know that you will repeat them you will always prevail.

 

Duduzane Zuma THE FIASCO CONTINUES

Firstly I would like to extend my condolences to the Zuma family for their loss and I pray for them during this period of mourning that they are enduring.

The NPA has absolutely no scruples whatsoever for the manner in which they have handled the situation of Duduzane’s return to South Africa to attend his brothers funeral this past weekend.

Here is what was reported in the news last week and today for you to read:

Charged for Graft

https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/charged-for-graft-20180707

Duduzane Zuma in shackles at first court appearance

https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/duduzane-zuma-in-shackles-at-first-court-appearance-20180709

What a utter load of nonsense !!!!!!

firstly its very clear that they have no case whatsoever and that they will loos this case. This is so obviously a political stunt that will back fire on the NPA and South Africa in a very bad way. The judiciary is an utter mockery at the moment they have not made a single win in the last three rounds of court of cases they have made against the Gupta’s. Additionally to this in these reports its so blatantly obvious that they have absolutely no case as the prosecution and I am very sure that they will also need to answer for how they obtained the warrant of arrest for Duduzane, my gut tells me that they did this in a rush once more and obtained the warrant incorrectly. 

My god man they only developed there charge sheet against Duduzane over this past weekend. Which means they issued a warrant of arrest and then wrote up the charges that would apply to that warrant. This is what I call doing things ass backwards.

What a bunch of stooges, I hope that our prosecutors will soon realise that they are being played for fools by the masters they are serving in this mockery of justice and judicial procedure.

Duduzane I want to say to you that you must be strong through this period as horrible and disgusting it is you will prevail and the truth will come out and this time will pass. You don’t stand alone as there are those of us looking in from the outside we are able to see this for what it is, a political ploy and nothing more than that. We pray for you and we support you in this time.

The first article above ends as follows:

TALK TO US

Do you think the Hawks have a strong case against Duduzane Zuma? SMS us on 35697 using the keyword GRAFT and tell us what you think. Please include your name and province. SMSes cost R1.50

I will be texting a link to this blog post of mine to show my support for Duduzane’s innocence here.

The second article affirms my belief that this is a FIASCO and a MOCKERY of justice because if they even had the sniff of a case they would not have postponed the case to 2019.

The other reason is that this is a political ploy and why this has most likely been postponed to 2019 is so that this can be used to distract the public during the national election’s in 2019 from the fact that Jacob Zuma is still the democratically elected president of South Africa and that the incumbent on the ticket may need this distraction help win the election next year.

Our country is burning and I am sad to see it happen. Change needs to be made here and this selective prosecution of people needs to stop. We must stop governing the country through the courts. This is just becoming embarrassing now.

Catch a wakeup people a dangerous president is being set in our judiciary that will have long term and far reaching consequences for everyone in South Africa. This is sad but true.

 

GLENCORE being probed by USA for Irregular business activities

How the mighty are falling. Glencore is at the center of another investigation into its illicit business activities from Africa to America.

Its high time that companies like Glencore who operate without impunity and take advantage of African countries and there resources through illicit business activities.

Here is an article about the latest Probe in Glencore’s activities:

https://www.fin24.com/Companies/Mining/us-probe-darkens-glencores-horizons-from-africa-to-america-20180704

This casts serious doubt over all the stories regarding Glencore and Optimum mine that was sold to the Gupta family by Glencore.

Its my hope that all these allegations and activities reveal how the Optimum coal mine transaction and the subsequent issues and allegations against so many people is actually a design by Glencore to regain ownership of the mine.

The fact that Glencore is also closely linked to our President Cyril Ramaphosa should raise serious concerns about their activities in South Africa and the media fury that has helped them to better their position on Africa and South Africa.

I have a feeling that all the dirty laundry is about to come out about how Glencore operates.

Here are some must read articles that will shed some light on the relationship with President Ramaphosa:

Glencore CEO at home with Cyril Ramaphosa

https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/companies/2018-06-27-glencore-ceo-at-home-with-cyril-ramaphosa/

Glencore bets big on South Africa Ramaphosa Promises revival

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-25/glencore-bets-big-on-south-africa-as-ramaphosa-promises-revival

There are many articles that show an alarming story about Glencore and its truly strong backing of President Ramaphosa. This is very concerning and one should ask the question what does he owe this company and how will this compromise his position as the President of South Africa.

Big noises have been made about the Gupta family and Former President Zuma I wonder if similar noises will be made about President Ramaphosa and his relationships with the likes of Glencore and other wealthy families that control vast sectors of the South African Economy.

 

 

 

Glencore – Ramaphosa – PIC (Public Investment Corporation) – Chevron SA – SFF (Strategic Fuel Fund) – OTS (Off The Shelf Investments 56 Pty Ltd) – China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec).

Kindly brought to you by THUMAMINA!!!

In June 2016, SFF (an SOE) expressed and advanced interests to buy 75% stake sold by Chevron SA, but DoE minister Tina Joemat-Peterson called the deal off and said it did not make sense and labelled SFF as having no understanding of business. 

In March 2017, Sinopec confirms that it will pay R12.62 billion for a 75% stake in Chevron Corporation’s South African assets and its subsidiary in Botswana. That includes a 1 million a day barrel refinery plant in Cape Town and 845 Caltex fuel service stations with 220 convenience stores.

In May 2018, Glencore is close to the same R12.62 billion 75% stake deal at Chevron which was called off by DoE when the SFF showed interest. Futhermore, when Ramaphosa became president, the Sinopec deal stalled in favor of Glencore.

Let’s summarize and wrap it up…

Glencore is owned by billionaire Ivan Glasenberg, who is Cyril Ramaphosa’s former business partner and handler. Now do you remember the Gupta-Optimum Mine-Glencore war, does it make sense??

How did the Sinopec deal stall??

It stalled after a “black-investor group supported by Glencore backed off. This “black owned investor group” is known as OTS at 94 Jan Smuts Avenue, Saxonworld, Gauteng with its directors listed as Jack Roswald, Jim Taylor and Sam Ronald. Are they black??

How is Glencore closing off the Chevron deal?

The PIC which invests the pensions of civil servants will partner with Glencore and emerge as a 50% partner. Yes, R6.3 billion of your pensions will enrich Ivan Glasenberg, yes Ramaphosa will help his friend to own 845 Caltex fuel service stations. And with the rise of the fuel prices, they will be reaping profits at your expense and sweat.

#VukaDarkie

A leak from Stratcom “MISSION 2018” By Hloni Mashigo

White media’s desperate plot to crucify Dudu Myeni exposed

As a political journalist I’m often asked if the 40 white journalists who were paid by the apartheid government to destroy Winnie Mandela are still operational; my immediate answer is Yes! and even worse they’re not only 40 and not all white. The Stratcom project to discredit black leaders who stand against white dominance has been extended to Dudu Myeni and Brian Molefe. I know because on two occasions I applied for a job at a white owned newspaper, having worked for The New Age newspaper they offered me an interview. In the interview the editor asked me if I thought Dudu Myeni’s appointment as chairperson of South African Airways was right since she was also the chairperdson of Jacob Zuma Foundation was right; since I didn’t understand what the question had to do with content of the interview, I responded: “If she qualifies for the position why not?”

I didn’t know at the time that in order to work for The Daily Maverick I had to take a particular political stance against then President Jacob Zuma and by implication, Dudu Myeni.  

Yesterday I read an article from the same media house, discrediting Dudu Myeni and her tenure at SAA, even going as far as to accuse her of corruption. What newspaper readers don’t know is that we journalists share notes and contacts on WhatsApp groups. We write what we write because it suits our editorial policy and pleases our advertisers, It doesn’t ever pass the test of fact and integrity. We don’t necessarily believe the news we publish, but what the editor wants; the editor gets.

Today, Thursday June 28th, in one of my reporters WhatsApp groups, a journalist employed by the Mail and Guardian asked if anyone had pictures of Dudu Myeni’s house in Richards Bay. So this is how it works: If a reporter of a publication that hits the shelves on Friday morning asks for pictures of a prominent persons home on Thursday morning you can believe a story concerning that individual is in the press.  

As a good journalist I then called Dudu Myeni to find out if she had news she wanted to break, promising to give her side of the story prominence. She said she was busy and couldn’t talk but said she had no story to share. I got the sence that she was aware a story her was being “manufactured” about her. 

I went to the group chat and asked the reporter if we could share the angles of the story(which is common when we’re thin on news) and he replied “I’m trying for a front page chief, Khadija’s on my case”.

That means he was going to write anything, without evidence or a reply from Myeni, simply to make the cover story. 

That is the pitiful story of a black journo in a white media agency. 

I can’t begin to explain how many careers, futures, marriages, have been destroyed from my keyboard. But what were the options for a young black writer in this racist white dominated industry?

Sunday Independent editor Steve Motale apologised to President Jacob Zuma for being used by his masters against him. 

One day some of us will have to apologise to Dudu Myeni. 

I can already think what the next Mail and Guardian edition will entail. 80% of it will be speculation and allegation and another black leader will die the Stratcom kind of death. 

Hloni Mashigo,

(Hloni holds an honours degree in Political Science and Communication from the University of Free State and writes for Afro voice, previously known as The New Age)

The HAWKS “Doing the MJ Moonwalk” Ajay Gupta is not a Fugitive

I don’t know if I should laugh or if I should cry.

ENCA interviewed Godfrey Lebeya and in short he has said that the hawks had made a mistake and that Mr. Ajay Gupta is not a fugitive from the law.

The article and video can be found at:

http://www.enca.com/south-africa/watch-hawks-backtrack-on-gupta-fugitive-status

Here is the video of the interview:

So by my count I am astounded by the losses made by the HAWKS yet they maintain that they are right and that what they are doing is right.

This is a true case of selective prosecution if I have ever seen one. This entire fiasco needs to end and this embarrassing nonsense need to come to an end.

 

“AfroVoice” formerly “The New Age” SHUTDOWN

FRIDAY JUNE 29th 2018:

TODAY MARKS A SAD DAY FOR FREEDOM OF SPEECH AND FOR TRUTH AND INTEGRITY IN THE MEDIA IN SOUTH AFRICA.

WE BID FAREWELL TO A PUBLICATION THAT WAS BOLD ENOUGH TO GO AGAINST THE ESTABLISHMENT.

Thank you “The New Age” for proving that its possible to provide unbiased media reports and that stories that are told can be vetted and published without having to tell lies.

Thank you “AfroVoice” for picking up the reigns and continuing to fight the good fight. Its unfortunate that in this case the Sword proved mightier than the pen. None the less you have shown SA and the world that news can still be told in a manner that values truth and integrity.

AfroVoice newspaper which is formerly The New Age is being shutdown with immediate effect.

Article Posted Today:
https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/afrovoice-newspaper-to-shut-down-20180628

Here is a quote from a highly respected anonymous source regarding the shut down of the newspaper and it articulates what we all should be feeling about this very sad turn of events.

“Every time a newspaper closes I mourn diversity in the news and freedom of speech. Today is the last edition of the TNA. Its defense of the ANC led government was a bridge too far to cross for its new owners and advertising in SA. It became a vendetta against a family instead of seen as a tool to dispense unmitigated news. The establishment wins again, and news monopoly will remain until we find people with courage to stay the course.”

I personally feel very sad and see this as a resounding warning for FREEDOM OF SPEECH which is not free at all and all the remaining publications need to heed the warning because when they are no longer towing the party line they will most likely suffer the same fate.

UDM LEADER “Bantu Holomisa” Open letter to the President Ramaphosa

UNMASKING HARITH AND LEBASHE’S ALLEGED FLEECING OF THE PUBLIC INVESTMENT CORPORATION

1. I refer to the United Democratic Movement’s (UDM) previous two letters addressed to you and dated 31 May and 8 June 2018 regarding possible corruption at the Public Investment Corporation (PIC) that potentially could make the Gupta Family’s alleged capture of state look like chump change.

The Above quote is taken from ‘Africa News’ link: http://www.africanews247.co.za/index.php/southafricaforever/holomisa-pens-explosive-letter-to ramaphosa-on-fleecing-of-the-pic/

The Leader of the UDM in South Africa Mr. Bantu Holomisa has written an open letter as i am sure you must have seen by now.

Link to the Open Letter:  http://udm.org.za/pic_scandal/

The revelations that are made here are shocking to say the least. I agree with Mr. Holomisa why are these matters not receiving the attention they deserve.

In my opinion this is yet another example of ‘Selective Prosecution’ that is exercised so badly by the NPA and the Hawks.

With information and allegations as these, which have been exposed by Mr. Holomisa, why has nothing been done about it.

People we should rally behind Mr. Holomisa’s call for an inquiry here. We must make certain that we encourage a full investigation into this.

Here is a link to an article in ‘News 24’ :

https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/udm-calls-on-ramaphosa-to-tackle-iceberg-of-corruption-at-pic-20180628

TIME TO STAND UP AND MAKE OUR VOICES HEARD BECAUSE EVERYDAY THERE SEEMS TO MORE AND MORE ISSUES OF CORRUPTION AND HOW APT LESS AND LESS GUPTA LEAKS.

TRANSNET 1064 (Making Sense of It) Part 2

This post is long but I can assure you as the reader you will find the post worth reading.

Background

The South African media consistently refer to an amount of R38.6bn when publishing articles related to the 1064 locomotive transaction. This is the amount contained in the Transnet business case which was used to obtain the green light internally to proceed with the acquisition of the 1064 locomotives.

The media continuously imply that there is little to no justification for the increase in the cost of the 1064 locomotive acquisition from R38.6bn to R54bn. Taking the information in Part 1 of this post and applying some common sense and rudimentary mathematics it becomes apparent how the facts have been skewed by the Media to meet an agenda only they know.

Purpose of this document

The purpose of this document is to critically evaluate the assumptions used to derive the R38.6bn contained in the Transnet business case model (“the model”).

Where the assumptions used are deemed to be unreasonable, updated assumptions will be used and the resulting cost of the 1064 will be included in this document.

The end result will be compared to the R54bn quoted in the media as being the revised acquisition cost for the 1064 locomotives.

Overview of the business case model

The business case model is a comprehensive model that addresses the following key areas:

• Incremental revenue generated by the acquisition of the locomotives.
• Capital expenditure related to the 1064 locomotives.
• Maintenance costs as well as the associated costs saved by replacing the ageing fleet.
• Fuel and electricity costs as well as the associated costs saved by replacing the ageing fleet, and
• Associated incremental tax expense and wear and tear allowances.
The only area of relevance to this document is the capital expenditure and as such no further consideration has been given to the other areas listed above.

Assumptions used
Foreign exchange rates (“Forex rates”)

The forex rates used in the model may have been reasonable at the time it was developed, retrospectively however the appear to be very conservative as can be seen in the graph below.

Link to Forex Rate Chart: https://db.tt/CZZUEPARyi

 

Delivery schedule

The original delivery schedule as contained in the original model is significantly different to the actual deliveries being made to Transnet. The table below sets out the various delivery schedules assumed in the updated model. Transnet had only taken delivery of 35 diesel and 54 electric locomotives as at 31 March 2016 and this has been taken into account in the two revised delivery schedules.

Link to Delivery Schedule Chart: https://db.tt/roAsSXKFmX

 

Price per locomotive

The base price per locomotive in the model were sourced from “Expert Interviews”. The parameters used to derive these prices are not described.

These parameters include the following, amongst others:

• The number of locomotives per OEM as this will affect the capex amount recovered per locomotive as well as the level of economies of scale that would be achieved,
• The contracting currency as this will determine how the OEMs will hedge their foreign currency exposure (if any) which will form part of the price, and
• The localisation content requirement as this will impact the currency structure of the OEMs’ manufacturing cost which will affect the pricing.
Although the reasonability of the base price per locomotive is uncertain it remains unchanged in all three scenarios.

Results

The resulting cash flows under each scenario are shown below:

Link to Results Schedule : https://db.tt/PDld6omOb2

Conclusion

By updating the foreign exchange rates as well as delivery schedules to reflect actual historical data for the time elapsed, the acquisition cost of the 1064 transaction is between R55.6bn and R57.0bn. As such the R54bn being quoted in the media as the acquisition cost can be seen as reasonable

TRANSNET 1064 (Making Sense of It) Part 1

There have been numerous articles that have been written about this transaction and a slue of allegations about corruption have been made regarding this huge Capital Expenditure Project aimed at improving the infrastructure of TRANSNET for the immediate and future requirements of the State-Owned Enterprise.

My methodology with respect to this post is simple, make all the material that I have used public so that my synopsis can be read with an impartial eye as the source documents for the synopsis are being made available to the readers.

This is revolutionary with respects to how South African media would approach this subject and have approached this subject.

My synopsis of the deal is derived from the documents which I have linked below and its through these documents that I have read and studied, I have drawn my information and conclusions from. Shocking that I would do this but because transparency is required for people make an informed decision based on facts and figures and not just conjecture.

Its my intention here to show that the facts are vastly different from the fiction that has been published in the Media since this transaction Transnet 1064 gained traction in the media.

All the conclusions I have drawn in this series are my own and based on the documentation that I have acquired through trolling the internet and searching public records for the information. Readers are welcome to disagree with my conclusions and I urge readers to do so based on the facts rather than the fiction.

DOWNLOADABLE & ONLINE VIEWABLE DROPBOX LINKS TO MY RESEARCH DOCUMENTATION:

When clicking the links using Google Chrome or Microsoft Edge Browser from your phone or computer you do not need to have a Dropbox account please click on the “continue to website” link at the bottom of the page to access the file. 

  1. The Business Case
    1. TRANSNET 1064 Business Case Table (Excel Sheet)
      1. https://db.tt/cWf86mpt0X
    2. TRANSNET 1064 Multi-Sheet Business Case Model (Excel Sheet)
      1. https://db.tt/VKXCHFgLiV
      2. This link contains multiple sheets so please be sure to look at all the sheets which are displayed at the bottom of the page once you access the link.
  2. Werksmans Report
    1. I have broken the file up into three sections hence three links for the full report this is to make it easier to load for everyone.
    2. Werksmans Report (1 of 3)
      1. https://db.tt/5rNemHZEGO
    3. Werksmans Report (2 of 3)
      1. https://db.tt/N5dBKi46Ux
    4. Werksmans Report (3 of 3)
      1. https://db.tt/KpnIktvdPr
  1. Responses to Enquiries About the Werksmans Report
    1. TRANSNET’s response to Enquiries about Report
      1. https://db.tt/CnvsaP7cGv
    2. THAMSANQA JIYANE Response to Amabhungane Enquiry Of 24 May 2018
      1. https://db.tt/CnvsaP7cGv

I will be adding to this list as I have unconfirmed information about other responses to this report that I still need to finish verifying. The verification is important because if I am stating facts then its incumbent upon me to ensure that my source documents are verified and factual.

Please follow this series as the next blog will be my written synopsis of the information contained in the links above as well articles that have been published on this subject of the TRANSNET 1064 transaction.